Daily Commentary by Larry Baer: Sales
at U.S.
retailers barely budged in April as the boost from an unseasonably warm winter
and an early Easter holiday faded. The
average temperature in March was the warmest on record in the U.S.,
and Easter fell on April 8th compared with April 24th
last year. Retail sales edged up a
meager 0.1% in April. It was the smallest gain for this measure of economic
activity since December.
In a separate report, the Labor Department
said its Consumer Price Index was unchanged last month after rising 0.3% in
March. Excluding the more volatile food
and energy components, the so called "core" rate of inflation at the
consumer level posted a 0.2% gain, matching the increase posted in March.
Mortgage investors generally shrugged off
this morning's economic news since it largely fell within expected ranges.
The largest support for steady to perhaps
fractionally lower mortgage interest rates is being driven by this morning's
news that Greece has failed to create a new government following recent
elections -- and now finds it necessary to take another stab at the electoral
process. The Greek political struggles
dramatically increase the likelihood the country will go bankrupt before the
summer is out. The threat of such an
outcome continues to fuel the global "flight-to-quality" buying of
U.S. dollar denominated assets like Treasury debt obligations and agency
eligible mortgage-backed securities - a credit market condition highly
supportive of the near-term prospects for steady to perhaps fractionally lower
mortgage interest rates.
THE
MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME
