Thursday, January 31, 2013

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 1.31.2013



Daily Commentary by Larry Baer:   The devil is always in the detail.
The Commerce Department reported earlier this morning that personal income soared 2.6% higher last month - suggesting consumer retail firepower was being restored and economic growth was poised to leap forward.  Stock markets posted additional gains and the early improvement in the mortgage market faded.  But wait, excluding one-time factors like year-end bonuses and some companies paying dividends earlier than normal after-tax income rose 0.4% -- not bad - but not anywhere close to the 2.6% gain media talking heads are breathlessly reporting.  Reading the release just a bit further would have revealed spending rose a very pedestrian 0.2% last month -- while the core rate of inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure index of the broader report remained unchanged.  Once the dust settled a little - most mortgage investors shrugged this data off completely.
Initial claims for government jobless benefits rose more than anticipated during the week ending January 26th - growing by 38,000 claims.  The latest weekly jobless numbers fall outside of the survey period for tomorrow's much more important December nonfarm payroll report scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET.   In general, new job creation seems to be holding steady and projections for a December payroll gain of 160,000 and a steady national jobless rate of 7.8% certainly seem to fit with the already released weekly initial claims numbers.  
 It will likely take a December headline payroll number of 165,000 or more together with a national jobless rate of 7.7% or less to induce mortgage investors to push interest rates notably higher from current levels.  A headline number of 150,000 or less and/or a national jobless rate of 7.9% or higher will likely prove supportive of steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates.  
 
THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME

FHA Looks to Shore Up Finances with New MIP Changes

From Mortgage News Daily

by Jann Swanson

1/30/2013

 

Federal Housing Administration Commissioner Carol Galante has just announced several significant changes to FHA requirements, processes, and fees in an ongoing effort by the agency to shore up its Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund (MMI Fund.)  The first change - the consolidation of FHA's Standard Fixed-Rate Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) with its Saver Fixed Rate HECM - was officially announced today.  HECM is commonly referred to as a reverse mortgage and is available only to homeowners over the age of 62. 

FHA said that the Fixed Rate Standard HECM pricing option currently represents a large majority of the loans insured through FHA's HECM program and is responsible for placing significant stress on the MMI Fund.  To preserve the program as a financial option for aging homeowners FHA will make the HECM Fixed Rate Saver the only pricing option available to borrowers who seek a fixed interest rate mortgage.  Using the Fixed Rate Saver for fixed rate mortgages will significantly lower the borrower's upfront closing costs while permitting a smaller pay out than the HECM Fixed Rate Standard product, thereby reducing risks to the Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund.  This change will be effective for FHA case numbers assigned on or after April 1, 2013. 

Other changes for which official announcements will be forthcoming over the next few days are:
  • An increase in annual mortgage insurance premiums (MIP) on most mortgages by 10 basis points or 0.10 percent. Premiums on jumbo mortgages with balances of $625,000 or larger will increase by 5 basis points or 0.05 percent. This will bring jumbo mortgage premiums up to the maximum premium authorized by Congress. These premium increases exclude certain streamline refinance transactions.
  • FHA will reverse its existing policy of cancelling MIP on loans when the outstanding principal balances reached 78 percent of the original balance. Because FHA remains obligated to insure 100 percent of the outstanding loan balance for the life of the loan, homeowners will now be required to maintain principal payments over that period as well. FHA's Office of Risk Management and Regulatory Affairs estimates that the MMI Fund has foregone billions of dollars in premium revenue on mortgages endorsed from 2010 through 2012 because of this automatic cancellation policy.
  • FHA will require lenders to manually underwrite loans for which borrowers have a decision credit score below 620 and a total debt-to-income (DTI) ratio greater than 43 percent. Lenders will be required to document compensating factors that support the underwriting decision to approve loans where these parameters are exceeded, using FHA manual underwriting and compensating factor guidelines.
  • FHA will propose an increase in the minimum down payments for jumbo loans from 3.5 to 5 percent. The proposal will be published in the Federal Register within the next few days.
  • FHA will step up its enforcement efforts for FHA-approved lenders with regard to aggressive marketing to borrowers with previous foreclosures. Borrowers are currently able to access FHA-insured financing no sooner than three years after they have experienced a foreclosure, but only if they have re-established good credit and qualify for an FHA loan in accordance with FHA's fully documented underwriting requirements. It has come to FHA's attention that a few lenders are inappropriately advertising and soliciting borrowers with the false pretense that they can somehow "automatically" qualify for an FHA-insured mortgage three years after their foreclosure. FHA will work with other federal agencies to address such false advertising by non-FHA-approved entities.
  • Finally, as discussed in its Annual Report to Congress, FHA is also committed to structuring a new housing counseling initiative that would apply to a number of borrower classifications, including borrowers with previous foreclosures.
 "These are essential and appropriate measures to manage and protect FHA's single-family insurance programs" said Galante.  "In addition to protecting the MMI Fund, these changes will encourage the return of private capital to the housing market, and make sure FHA remains a vital source of affordable and sustainable mortgage financing for future generations of American homebuyers."
Here is the full document provided by HUD.

 

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Fannie To Allow Walkaways by On-Time Borrowers: Mortgages

From Bloomberg.com


Non-delinquent borrowers with illness, job changes or other reasons they need to move will become eligible in March to apply for a so-called deed-in-lieu transaction that erases the shortfall between a property’s value and the size of its mortgage. It follows a change in November that lets on-time borrowers sell properties for less than they owe, known as short sales, wiping out the remaining mortgage debt. Normally, the lenders could pursue people to recoup their losses.

“It’s an extraordinarily generous approach for companies still in debt to American taxpayers,” said Phillip Swagel, a professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy in College Park, Maryland. “We’re giving people an incentive to walk away, right when the housing market is starting to right itself.”

Previous foreclosure-prevention programs were designed to help only borrowers on the verge of losing their homes, in effect penalizing those who kept paying, according to homeowner advocates such as Julia Gordon, director of housing finance and policy at the Center for American Progress in Washington. In some cases, servicers have advised borrowers to stop making their mortgage payments to qualify for help, leading to evictions if their applications are denied, Gordon said.

 

Underwater Properties

U.S. residential real estate lost about a third of its value after home prices peaked in 2006. The collapse of the mortgage market in 2008 sparked a global financial meltdown and created the worst foreclosure crisis since the Great Depression. In the last year, home prices have started to revive. The median price of an existing home rose about 7 percent in 2012 from 2010, when it fell 5 percent from the year before.

There are about 7 million underwater properties, worth less than the mortgages on them, down from 11 million in 2011, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Within two years, the number of upside-down home loans could drop to 4 million, the New York bank said.

“Fannie and Freddie are playing catch-up, making these changes when defaults are falling and the housing market is coming back to some extent,” said Kurt Eggert, a professor at Chapman University School of Law in Orange, California. “It should have happened a long time ago.”

 

Taxpayer Aid

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have drawn almost $190 billion in taxpayer aid since they were taken into conservatorship in September of 2008 when investments in risky loans pushed them to the brink of insolvency. They’ve paid a combined $50 billion in dividends back to the U.S. Treasury. The companies own or guarantee $5.2 trillion of mortgages, more than half the outstanding U.S. home loans.

“The government is saying you can just turn in your home and we’re not going to come after you for the money you still owe,” said Peter Schiff, chief executive officer of Connecticut-based brokerage firm Euro Pacific Capital. “Some of these are going to be people who might otherwise have stayed in their homes and kept making payments.”

Gordon, the homeowners’ advocate, argues that while the change may be late, it’s still good policy.

 

‘Finally Recognizing’

The deed-in-lieu transactions, which require homeowners to leave properties in good condition, preserve the value of homes by preventing owners from abandoning them to take a new job or cope with an illness, Gordon said. Vacant and dilapidated real estate drags down values of nearby houses, increases expenses for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and reduces the amount they’ll recover when the property is sold, she said.

“Fannie and Freddie are finally recognizing that some people are stuck in their homes,” she said. “There are a lot of families who need to move who can’t do it if they’re going to have debt hanging over their heads. There’s no winner when someone is forced to default on their mortgage -- not the investor, not the homeowner, and certainly not the neighborhood,” Gordon said.

The new programs are separate from the government’s Making Home Affordable foreclosure-prevention efforts that require homeowners to be in or near default. The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac programs don’t require borrowers to be turned down for a modification before applying, as does the Treasury-run Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternative program, or Hafa.

 

Aligning Rules

The companies changed their programs in tandem to satisfy a directive from their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, to align some of their servicing rules, said Brad German, a spokesman for McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac. While Freddie Mac previously accepted applications from on-time borrowers, “approvals were rare,” German said.

For either a deed-in-lieu or a short sale, the failure to pay off the full mortgage balance will be reported to credit bureaus even as the amount is forgiven. The effect on scores will be nearly as bad as foreclosures, according to Fair Isaac Corp. However, if borrowers keep current with their payments during the process, they won’t take additional hits for delinquencies.

To qualify for the programs, borrowers are required to have a 55 percent debt-to-income ratio -- meaning 55 percent of their monthly gross income goes to paying debt. To be eligible, homeowners have to document a hardship, such as illness, for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to consider the deal. For a deed-in- lieu transactions, servicers must confirm the property is being left in good condition.

 

‘Appropriate Options’

“The goal is to make sure people who have suffered a hardship have the appropriate options to prevent foreclosure,” said Andrew Wilson, spokesman for Washington-based Fannie Mae. The company has renamed its deed-in-lieu program, now calling it mortgage releases.

While Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac forgive any remaining first-lien obligations, they can’t control what the holders of second mortgages do. Last year they said servicers can offer the owners of home equity debt up to $6,000 to release borrowers from requirements to pay off those loans.

“The second-lien holder gets a say -- they don’t have to release the title,” said Mark Goldman, a mortgage broker at C2 Financial Corp. in San Diego. “It can get complicated when other people have a stake in a property.”

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may require repayment of some of the shortfall between the value of the home and the mortgage balance -- if the borrowers have the means. Homeowners who apply for deed-in-lieu transactions may be asked to make cash contributions of up to 20 percent of their financial reserves, excluding retirement accounts, according to the guidelines.

Or, they may be asked to sign a promissory note for future no-interest repayments. The amount and terms can be negotiated, according to the servicer guidelines.

 

New Job

Borrowers are allowed to have a newly originated mortgage on another property if they are moving for a new job or if they are in the military and moving to a new station. Also, they can have a vacation home and still apply for assistance for their primary residence.

“I don’t have a huge amount of sympathy for someone who says they need help from Fannie and Freddie when they still have a vacation home,” said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington.

Even if borrowers pay a portion of their loan’s shortfall, it may be a better deal than just walking away from the property. Almost two-thirds of mortgages are held in so-called recourse states that permit lenders to chase homeowners for the full difference between the value of their property and the loan principal, known as a deficiency.

In non-recourse states, many home loans are eligible for deficiency judgments if they have been refinanced. Two weeks ago, Congress extended a law that grants tax-free status to the forgiven portions of mortgages, which normally would be considered income for the borrower.

“There are lots of families who are trapped in their homes,” said Gordon, of the Center for American Progress. “They need a way to get out.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Kathleen M. Howley in Boston at kmhowley@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rob Urban at robprag@bloomberg.net

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 1.30.2013



Daily Commentary by Larry Baer:   The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced earlier this morning that their models showed economic growth slumped dramatically in the last three months of 2012.  Gross Domestic Product, a statistical measure of the value of the goods and services produced in the country during the fourth-quarter declined to a reading of -0.1%.  Most economists had anticipated Q4 GDP would post a gain of 1.0% or more.  According to government figures, the decline in economic activity was dominated by a plunge in federal defense spending, exports, and weaker inventory accumulation. This was the first decline in GDP since the second quarter of 2009.   
The sharp decline in the pace of economic growth during the final three months of last year indicates a slow start to the new year is highly probable.  Against such a backdrop the Fed will almost certainly choose to maintain the status quo with respect to their current monetary policy positions.  If so, there is little chance they will abandon their bond and mortgage-backed security buying program anytime soon.  Look for Chairman Bernanke and his fellow central bankers to emphasize that point when they issue their traditional Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement this afternoon at 2:15 p.m. ET.
Uncle Sam will wrap up a three-day, three-part auction schedule with the sale of $29 billion worth of 7-year notes today.  The yield on this security now roughly equals its late December high and has not been higher since April 2012.   There is every reason to expect demand from both foreign and domestic investors to be solid - a condition that should help curtail the current upward pressure on mortgage interest rates. 
A stronger-than-expected auction this afternoon will likely be broadly interpreted by many analysts as a sign market participants are not convinced the economy is on a sustainable trajectory to higher growth levels - a view likely to exert selling pressure on stocks to the benefit of steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates. 
The auction will conclude at 1:00 p.m. ET and I'll post the auction result on my website as soon as possible once the final gavel falls.
As they do every Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers of America have released their Mortgage Application Survey figures for the week ended January 25th.  During the survey week demand in the form of refinance loan requests declined by 10.2% while purchase money loan requests dropped by 1.8%.   Refinance applications accounted for 79% of all applications and 75% of the perspective loan volume.
The contract rate for 30-year fixed rate conforming mortgages rose 5 basis points to 3.67%.  The interest rate is 15 basis-points higher from four weeks ago, but still 42 basis points lower this time one-year ago. 
THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 1.29.2013



Daily Commentary by Larry Baer:   Uncle Sam will be splashing around in the credit market this afternoon looking to borrow $35 billion in the form of 5-year notes.  The yield on this security now roughly equals its late December high and has not been higher since April 2012.   There is every reason to expect demand from both foreign and domestic investors to be solid - a condition that should help curtail the current upward pressure on mortgage interest rates. 
A stronger-than-expected auction this afternoon will likely be broadly interpreted by many analysts as a sign market participants are not convinced the economy is on a sustainable trajectory to higher growth levels - a view likely to exert selling pressure on stocks to the benefit of steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates.  The auction will conclude at 1:00 p.m. ET and I'll post the auction result on my website as soon as possible once the final gavel falls.
The Federal Open Market Committee began two day's of monetary policy deliberations earlier this morning.  The committee is broadly anticipated to maintain the status quo when they release their post-meeting statement tomorrow afternoon at 2:15 p.m. ET.  The Fed will not change its policy targets, interest rates, or monthly assets purchases - including their purchases of mortgage-backed securities.  The statement will likely include only minor tweaks and the whole thing will likely prove to be a nonevent with respect to its impact on the current trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates.
I realize I may sound like a broken record to many but I think it is worth reinforcing my previous references to the fact my models are suggesting a disconnect exists between the reality of sputtering economic data, "kick-the-can-down-the-road" politics and current stock market levels.  There seems to be broad based complacency related to this apparent mismatch.  Even at the risk of being found guilty of howling at the moon - I have to say the probabilities appear to be very high the stock markets are vulnerable to a significant sell-off sooner rather than later.   If this assessment proves accurate, the flow of capital fleeing the crumbling stock markets for the relative safety of Treasury debt obligations and agency eligible mortgage-backed securities will soon resume -- providing solid support for the prospects of steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates.   I don't think there is much more than two or three weeks left before my projections here are either proven largely, if not totally inaccurate - or dead-on the money.  Heads up.
THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME

Monday, January 28, 2013

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 1.28.2013



Daily Commentary by Larry Baer:   Orders for goods manufactured to last three years or more, aka Durable Goods, blew out economists' best estimates by posting a gain of 4.6% in December - well ahead of the most optimistic forecasts calling for a gain of 2.0% or so.  It was the second best improvement in this measure of economic activity in the past six months.  Excluding the volatile transportation component, orders were up a much milder 1.3%.    Looking past the headline number, the overall story told by the December durable goods orders data set is less than impressive - but leaves manufacturing activity with decent momentum going into the first quarter of 2013 - a condition with just enough influence to induce mortgage investors to push mortgage interest rates a little higher today.   
Uncle Sam will be splashing around in the credit market this afternoon looking to borrow $35 billion in the form of 2-year notes.  Demand from the foreign investment community for this offering is expected to remain high - a condition that help curtail the current upward pressure on mortgage interest rates.  The auction will conclude at 1:00 p.m. ET and I'll post the auction result on my website as soon as possible once the final gavel falls.
My models are suggesting a disconnect exists between the reality of sputtering economic data and "kick-the-can-down-the-road" politics and current stock market levels.  There seems to be broad based complacency related to this apparent mismatch.  Even at the risk of being found guilty of howling at the moon - I have to say the probabilities appear to be very high the stock markets are vulnerable to significant sell-off sooner rather than later.   If this assessment proves accurate, the flow of capital fleeing the crumbling stock markets for the relative safety of Treasury debt obligations and agency eligible mortgage-backed securities will soon resume -- providing solid support for the prospects of steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates.   I don't think there is much more than two or three weeks left before my projections here are either proven largely, if not totally inaccurate - or dead-on the money.  Heads up.
THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME