Thursday, March 31, 2011

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 3.30.2011

Commentary: As they do every Thursday morning, the Labor Department has released their weekly jobless claims figures. The data shows the number of Americans filing first-time claims for government unemployment benefits fell 6,000 to 388,000 during the week ended March 26th. The number of new jobless claims filed has now held beneath the 400,000 level that is generally associated with steady job growth for three consecutive weeks.

Today's weekly jobless claims numbers falls outside of the survey period for tomorrow's much more important March nonfarm payroll report. Even so, most economists are anticipating the number of net new jobs created in March rose to 190,000 while the national jobless rate held steady near a two-year low of 8.9%. These values are already well priced into the mortgage market and will likely have little influence on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates should the actual values closely match expectations. In my judgment it will take a headline nonfarm payroll number greater than 200,000 and/or a jobless rate of 8.8% or lower to put significant upward pressure on mortgage rates. By the same token, it will take an unlikely nonfarm payroll number of 175,000 or less and/or a national jobless rate of 9.0% or higher to drive mortgage interest rates notably lower from current levels.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Wednesday Market Update Video 3.30.2011

Mortgage interest rates have improved slightly today. Click here to view today's Wednesday Market Update Video.

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 3.30.2011

Commentary: Trading activity is thin this morning in the mortgage market as investors choose to take a cautious "wait-and-see" attitude in front of this afternoon's $29 billion 7-year Treasury note auction. The bidding will conclude at 1:00 p.m. ET and I'll post the result on my website as soon as possible once the final gavel falls.

With an hour or so to go before the 7-year note auction results are tallied -- trading in that particular security is not very strong - a condition suggesting demand may fall below the level most analyst are now projecting. Be very alert here - a poorly bid 7-year Treasury note auction will potentially cause mortgage interest rates to creep higher before the day is out. Heads up.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 3.29.2011

Commentary: Even though some credit market participants will likely choose to sit on the sidelines until the March non-farm payrolls figures are released on Friday morning -- most observers believe the bidding at today's $35 billion 5-year Treasury note auction will be decent. The auction will conclude at 1:00 p.m. ET and I'll post the result on my website as soon as possible once the final gavel falls.

Given that the 5-year Treasury note auction goes as well as expected -- look for little change on your mortgage investors' rate sheets in terms of either rate or price today.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME.

Monday, March 28, 2011

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 3.28.2011

Commentary: According to data provided by the Commerce Department consumer spending rose slightly more than expected in February for the eighth straight month as households drew on savings to make their purchases. Spending accelerated on a month-over-month basis by 0.7% while incomes grew by 0.3%. The core personal consumption expenditure index, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation at the consumer level, posted a 0.2% increase in February - matching January's gain. The surge in spending is not deemed to be sustainable since savings accounts can't be drawn down below a zero balance.

Mortgage investors largely shrugged this data off and remained focused on responding to indications of demand for this afternoon's Treasury Department's sale of $35 billion of 2-year notes, the first of three such auctions this week totaling $99 billion. Today's auction will conclude at 1:00 p.m. ET and I'll post the result on my website as soon as possible once the final gavel falls.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Wednesday Market Update Video 3.23.2011

Click Here to watch today's Wednesday Market Update Video.

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 3.23.2011

Commentary: Different day - same story.

The most significant influence on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates has little to do with domestic macro-economic data. The majority of mortgage investors' attention remains focused on the turmoil in the Middle East and the nuclear power crisis in Japan. The resurgence of the European credit pinch - particularly as it relates currently to Portugal - has added to the temporary flow of capital into the relative safe-haven of dollar denominated assets like Treasury debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities presently supporting the prospects for steady to mortgage interest rates.

Mortgage investors largely shrugged off earlier news from the Commerce Department indicating the February pace of new home sales plummeted 16.7% to a new all-time record low. Part of the majority of traders' cavalier attitude can probably be attributed to the strong upward 6.0% revision to the January sales pace. And in my judgment -- another large part of traders blasé attitude toward this morning's weak new home sales number can be attributed to the simple fact this data series has a dismal accuracy record - with a margin-of-error of more than 19% plus or minus. There is no doubt that demand for new homes is weak, constrained by still-high unemployment, a slow-growing economy and the competition homebuilders face from the inexpensive, distressed existing home market. But that's really nothing new - these conditions have existed for more than a year.

As they do every Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers of America have released their Mortgage Application Survey figures for the week ended March 18th. The data shows overall application traffic rose 2.7% -- with purchase and refinance requests each up 2.7%. The national average contract rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage finished the week at 4.8%, up by 1 basis point from the prior week, down by 20 basis points on a month-over-month comparison and down by 21 basis points from the year ago mark. Housing demand still looks poised to pick up over the next few quarters as the national labor market begins to post serious gains. Mortgage demand has always been a story about personal income growth. As incomes begin to rise the demand for mortgages will also rise as surely as day follows night.

It has been my experience that in times of great uncertainly - it is best to control your risk tangibly. Play it by the numbers.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 3.22.2011

Commentary: The credit market continues to be dominated by events in Japan and Libya.

With nothing on the economic calendar to chew on, the lack of new shocks in the Japanese crisis, and few signs that the Libyan conflict is approaching a clear outcome, mortgage investors are caught in a temporary limbo.

The probabilities are high that this limbo (a condition where neither buyers or sellers are dominating trading) will not be heavily challenged until next week when Uncle Sam wades into the credit markets looking to borrow $99 billion in the form of 2-, 5- and 7-year notes and the news wires fire-up with the release of the much anticipated March nonfarm payroll numbers of Friday, April 1st. Overriding all of the auctions and economic mumbo jumbo will be the ever present threat of some major new development surrounding Libya and/or other Middle East countries together with meaningful shifts in the drama surrounding the potential of a nuclear meltdown in Japan.

It has been my experience that in times of great uncertainly - it is best to control your risk tangibly. Play it by the numbers.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Sunday Viewpoint by Larry Baer 3.20.2011

Market Commentary:

The trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates this week will once again be most influenced by world news headlines – specifically those headlines surrounding hot spots of civil unrest in the Middle East, the Japanese earthquake-tsunami-nuclear disaster, and the resurgent financial crisis in Europe. These headlines are almost certain to create a major tug-of-war in the credit markets.

Anchoring one side of the market will be investors who strongly believe companies who have
insured Japanese lives and assets will soon find it necessary to begin selling large parts of their
Treasury and mortgage-backed securities portfolios to generate the cash reserves necessary to pay major claims and begin the arduous task of rebuilding the country. If these expectations prove accurate, mortgage interest rates will likely advance to higher levels.

Opposing this group of market participants will be those who believe social unrest in the Middle
East and the growing financial crisis in Europe will cause massive amounts of foreign capital to
flow into the relative safe harbor of dollar denominated assets like Treasury debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities – a decidedly mortgage interest rate neutral to friendly outlook.

I’m not sure which of these two groups will ultimately prevail – but I can tell you that my technical models are flashing an increasing number of signals suggesting it would be a
mistake not to convert “floating” loans to “locked” should the price of the Fannie Mae 4.5% 30-year fixed rate mortgage-backed security fall below the 102.125 price level on a closing basis. In times of great uncertainty -- control your risk tangibly.

Saturday, March 19, 2011

This week in review by Lou Barnes

This week was more about human nature than economics and markets.

When Fukushima looked catastrophic, the fearful bought Treasurys and 10-year yields fell to 3.15% from 3.55% in six days, taking mortgages to 4.75%. Since Japan is now merely awful, the stock market drunks are back in charge, fright-money coming out of bonds and rates rising on the happy thought of war with Libya. Go figure.

In the US economy, little has changed. A spurt in manufacturing activity has the blind watchers of traditional patterns fondling their braille, and for once they may be right: it is possible that the US competitive gap with the world is closing. The rest of the economy... the Fed’s post-meeting statement said the “recovery is on firmer footing.” Fair enough. No footing is firmer than flat ground, and stripped of revisions that’s what the new-data trend was: core CPI, industrial production, starts and permits for new homes, mortgage applications, unemployment claims... flat.

The Fukushima story began without the benefit of competent media. Anybody with history compulsion, let alone nuclear OCD, knew Saturday morning that seawater injection and hydrogen explosion meant meltdown. CNN for the next four days chopped off any nuclear expert in the first sentence and went back to footage of crying babies and tsunami. Monday’s markets were quiet; not until Tuesday morning trading in Asia did nuclear glow dawn, and the Nikkei crash 15% in five minutes. I did not find the first capable TV account until Tuesday evening, on Rachel Maddow of all productions.

Compounding the media weakness is the historical inability of Japanese institutions to pass negative news from the field to leadership (who knew that Guadalcanal wasn’t going well?), and these guys are taking top trophy from Brownie and FEMA. Every bit as bad: the determined optimism near stock markets, an astounding number of analysts claiming that rebuilding will be good for Japan and the global economy.

All that you need to know: if not one CH-47 pilot could hover for the 15 seconds necessary to dump a bucket on target... that place is hot. However, that hard radiation is not moving: there is no Chernobyl graphite-fire volcano to move it. Long-term contamination will move, but not in human-harmful dose; yet, enough strontium and cesium to make plants and grazing animals inedible for a long time, in a large area.

Scale. Russia’s land area is 6,592,800 square miles. All of Japan is 145,903. The Chernobyl exclusion zone is 3,560 square miles. Fukushima’s extent cannot be known now, but there won’t be anybody on a beach towel near there for a long time.

Follow the money. Japan’s finances are the weakest of all large nations, in John Mauldin’s observation, “a bug in search of a windshield.” Debt 200% of GDP, going higher. Windshield found. Japan’s deepest financial problem is demography. It is one of the oldest of all nations, vaunted savings rate dropping to zero, and its population five years ago began to shrink outright. In the last week or so, prospects for immigration there have not improved, nor for conception.

In post-catastrophe we all tend to fall into counter-panic, desperate to prevent recurrence. Ban nuclear power altogether, when resistance to new-build is responsible for the hazards of so many overage plants? Embrace the rising price and environmental damage of fossil fuel, or the impoverishing mega-cost of renewables?

Rebuild... what? The towns on Honshu’s north shore lie on compact river deltas, the mountains beside them perfect magnifiers of tsunami. Re-build only above this apocalyptic high-water mark? Or live behind new 100-foot-high sea walls? How quaint. Lovely. Build for another 9.0? Or figure you’ve taken the once-a-millennium shot, and build (again) for 7.9? Or for 9.5?

Leadership everywhere, not just Japan, constantly fails to look around corners, freezes in emergencies, and then overreacts once it’s all over. Yet the individual collective keeps moving, goes to work, tends kids, brushes off, smiles, and looks to a better day. I could draw an allegory to a mortgage and housing meltdown, but... nah.

by: Lou Barnes

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 3.18.2011

Commentary: It is a very quiet -- very thinly traded day in the mortgage market. Investors have nothing of significance to consider in terms of macro-economic data and global news headlines are, at least for the time being, fully priced into the mortgage market.

Looking ahead to next week -- Monday's February Existing Home Sales report together with its cousin Wednesday's February New Home Sales report will dominate a week otherwise devoid of any other significant economic data.

The probabilities are high that the greatest influence on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates during the coming week will be created by trading action in the stock markets. Higher stock prices will tend to nudge mortgage interest rates fractionally higher while lower stock prices will favor the prospects for steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates.

My models are indicating a close above 11,960 for the Dow (as I write trading at 11,860) will sharply increase the likelihood of a multi-week rally of at least 400+ points lasting probably through the final week of March. If my assessment proves accurate, it will be difficult, if not impossible for mortgage interest rates to move notably lower during this time frame. Heads up.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 3.17.2011

Commentary: Mortgage investors are nudging rates fractionally higher this morning as they respond to data indicating the economy is beginning to accelerate down the road of recovery.

The pace of inflation at the consumer level rose at its fastest rate in more than 18 months in February, driven by higher food and energy prices. The upward pressure on mortgage interest rates would have been greater this morning had it not been for the fact that the core rate of consumer inflation - a value that strips out the more volatile food and energy components - posted a modest 0.2% increase last month. Even though the jump in the core rate of inflation at the consumer level was a touch above economists' expectations, it is still not yet high enough to induce the Federal Reserve to begin tightening their short-term benchmark interest rates - good news for the prospects of relatively steady mortgage interest rates.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said first-time claims for government unemployment benefits fell 16,000 to 385,000 during the week ended March 12th. The four-week moving average of jobless claims - a better measure of the underlying trend - dropped to its lowest level since mid-July 2008. The closely watched average has now posted readings below 400,000 for a third straight week - suggesting strongly to most economists that an acceleration in monthly net new job creation will soon begin to exceed 200,000. If so, the prospects for notably lower mortgage interest rates are fading fast.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Wednesday Market Update Video 3.16.2011

The crisis in Japan has dominated the news this week causing a flight to quality. Mortgage backed securities have rallied. Mortgage interest rates have improved. Click here to view this week's Wednesday Market Update Video.

Monday, March 14, 2011

Weekly Update by Bill Fisher

Wow! The 6-month T-bill pays a puny 0.13% at this point, which doesn’t come near covering the erosion wrought by inflation. The 10-year T-note stands rather tentatively at 3.35%. And mortgage rates edged down a few basis points last week (measured before the effects of the Japanese earthquake/tsunami/nuclear crisis had begun to make themselves felt).

And what of those effects? We can see that the economy was in its forward-foot-shuffle mode when the quake hit, but all bets are off after the quake. As I write these words (about noon on Monday), Japanese authorities are reporting that they’re no longer confident they can cool the fuel rods with ocean water at one of the reactors. The looming possibility is a melt-down that results in an uncontrolled release of radioactivity into the air.

The world waits tensely. Radioactive materials in the air could travel far from Japan. Europeans are worried that they could reach their countries and, though the Pacific Ocean is a lot of water to cross, it is not impossible that small amounts of radioactivity will make it all the way to American shores.

The Japanese Central Bank, already working with its own version of QE2 in efforts to stimulate the Japanese economy, has announced that it will double the size of the current programs, spending 10 trillion yen to purchase government and corporate bonds.

The staggering damage to existing buildings, manufacturing plants, infrastructure, and residential properties has investors running to safe havens and expressing great fear about how long it will take for Japan to recover. This easily explains the 0.13% 6-month T-bill. And the fears in the markets explain, too, today’s ailing stock market (where the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 0.69%).

Notice, though, that we’re not looking at a rout. Unsurprisingly, gold fetches a higher price per ounce (about $1426) and crude oil is priced at $113.40 a barrel. Watch you local gas stations for high per-gallon prices (again). But nothing is rising to the sky nor plunging to unexpected lows.

It is simply too soon to make even the most tentative forecasts regarding what the quake will mean to Japan’s economy, or to ours. We can very likely suspect that interest rates will trend a bit lower for a time, that the price of oil will continue to rise and, perhaps conversely, a good deal of money will be spent inside and outside of Japan on reconstruction and on protecting the populations from radioactivity, and that could be good for the economy temporarily.

Most investors will probably huddle in the shelter of safe havens (like Treasury securities) and show very little desire to make major financial decisions for some time to come—even including the decision to finance or refinance a home.

One possibly important element in this situation: We have moved away from viewing our homes as investments that will pay solid dividends very quickly…to viewing them in more traditional terms. As shelters, where we live our best lives, where we do all that is most important to us. Current global conditions will intensify this psychological shift.

But keep in mind as well the worsening credit situation among countries like Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece, and the increasingly evident weakness in countries like Italy. When the earthquake headlines have ceased, we will probably be reading about new structural changes to the way European countries are helping one another avoid defaults—and Nouriel Roubini predicts that we’ll be reading about how the packages offer up too little, too late.

Very, very tense times. Yet there is a recovery slowly underway for all of that.



by: Bill Fisher

Larry Baer's Viewpoint 3.13.2011

Market Commentary: The trend trajectory of mortgage interest
rates this week will be most influenced by world news headlines –
specifically those headlines surrounding hotspots of civil unrest in
the Middle East, the Japanese earthquake, and the resurgent
financial crisis in Europe. These headlines are almost certain to
create a major tug-of-war in the credit markets.

Anchoring one side of the market will be investors who strongly
believe companies who have insured Japanese lives and assets will
soon find it necessary to begin selling large parts of their Treasury
and mortgage-backed securities portfolios to generate the cash
reserves to pay major claims resulting from last Thursday’s
earthquake and tsunami. If these expectations prove accurate,
mortgage interest rates will likely advance to higher levels.

Opposing this group of market participants will be those who believe
social unrest in the Middle East and the growing financial crisis in
Europe will cause massive amounts of foreign capital to flow into the
relative safe harbor of dollar-denominated assets like Treasury debt
obligations and mortgage-backed securities – a decidedly mortgage
interest rate neutral to friendly outlook.

I’m not sure which of these two groups will ultimately prevail – but I
do strongly believe it would be a mistake not to convert “floating”
loans to “locked” should the price of the Fannie Mae 4.5% 30-year
fixed rate mortgage-backed security fall below the 101.687 price
level on a closing basis. In times of great uncertainty -- control your
risk tangibly.

Friday, March 11, 2011

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 3.11.2011

Commentary: The trend trajectory for mortgage interest rates is caught in a major tug-of-war this morning.

Anchoring one side of the market are those traders who strongly believe Japanese insurers will soon find it necessary to sell large parts of their Treasury and mortgage-backed security portfolios in order to pay the massive claims sure to follow today's earthquake and tsunami - a condition almost certain to put upward pressure on interest rates in general -- and mortgage interest rates in particular. Opposing this group of market participants are those who believe social unrest in the Middle East and the growing financial crisis in Europe will soon ignite a "flight-to-quality" buying spree directed toward Treasury debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities that will prove strong enough to withstand any selling pressure that the disaster in Japan might create.

It is far too early to determine which of these two influences will ultimately dominate credit market conditions - but it is a virtual "sure bet" that next week's Fed meeting and the inflation story waiting to be told in the form of Wednesday's Feb. Producer Price Index and Thursday's Feb. Consumer Price Index will prove to be little more than background noise.

In my experience, during periods when so many cross-currents are at play in the credit markets, it is best to focus on the technical profile of the market. Here the story is much more straightforward. Should the Fannie Mae 4.5% 30-year mortgage-backed security close below a price of 101.687 -- the probabilities are very high that it will continue to fall into the 101.250 to 100.812 price range. Unless or until the 101.687 price level is breached to the downside -- look for mortgage interest rates to trade sideways to perhaps fractionally lower.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 3.10.2011

Commentary: The Labor Department reported earlier this morning that the number of American workers standing in line to file first-time claims for government unemployment benefits rose by 26,000 to 397,000 during the week ended March 5th. Claims have decreased in four of the last six weeks, and the current level is well below the 2010 average of 457,000. When the economy creates lots of new jobs, weekly applications for jobless benefits unusually drop below 400,000 for an extended period of time. The modest uptick in the weekly jobless claims number this morning was just enough to sustain the current move favoring steady to fractionally lower mortgage interest rates - but this condition will be subject to change depending on the result of today's Treasury Department debt sale.

Uncle Sam is conducting a $13 billion 30-year bond auction with final bids due by 1:00 p.m. ET this afternoon. Analysts are almost split evenly among those who believe this offering will draw solid demand - especially from foreign investors - and those who believe the bidding for these securities will fall far short of the appetite shown for Tuesday's 3-year notes and yesterday's 10-year notes. It is a close call - but I think we will be extremely lucky if we escape the day without a sell-off developing in the mortgage market producing lower investor prices and slightly higher note rates. I'll post the auction results on my website as soon as possible once the final gavel falls. Heads up.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Wednesday Market Update Video 3.9.2011

Mortgage interest rates remain steady this week. There is not much technical news in the market this week, so MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) are reacting to world news and today’s treasury auction. Click here to view today’s Wednesday Market Update Video.

Larry Baer's Viewpoint 3.6.2011

The trend trajectory of mortgage
interest rates will likely once again be most influenced by
news from Libya and other hot spots of civil unrest in the
Middle East.

Traders and investors around the world will nervously wait to
see if Friday’s “Day of Rage” protest in Saudi Arabia actually
develops. The world’s second largest oil producer has so far
escaped the unrest roiling through North Africa and much of
the Middle East.

As the week progresses mortgage investors will be keeping
one eye on trading activity surrounding the Treasury’s three part,
$66 billion debt auction -- and the other wary eye will be
constantly monitoring oil prices.

Some analysts argue that the brewing unrest in Saudi Arabia
will drive more foreign investors to this week’s Treasury
auction. If so, the increased demand for high-quality dollar
denominated fixed-income assets will almost certainly prove
supportive for the prospects for steady to perhaps fractionally
lower mortgage interest rates. Others say that the threshold
of safe-haven demand has already been reached. If this
assessment proves accurate, mortgage interest rates will be
vulnerable to a move to higher levels. The “tilt-point” here
will likely be determined by the trend trajectory of oil prices.

It is a close call -- but my pricing models are suggesting Light
Crude will trade in the 104.50 to 106.50 price range this
week (last Friday’s close was 104.42). If my projections
prove accurate, the probabilities will continue to lean slightly
in favor of the near-term prospects for steady to perhaps
fractionally lower rates.

Fannie, Freddie say mortgage servicers triggered foreclosure crisis

Fannie, Freddie say mortgage servicers triggered foreclosure crisis

Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, December 1, 2010; 10:38 AM

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac defended their role in the foreclosure crisis in prepared testimony to Congress on Wednesday, while at least one federal regulator said the mortgage giants had contributed to the problem.

Speaking to the Senate Banking Committee at a hearing on the national foreclosure debacle, Fannie and Freddie executives emphasized that they are not responsible for managing payments by borrowers on home loans or foreclosing on homeowners when they default.

These tasks, executives say, are the responsibility of mortgage servicers and law firms with which the companies contract.

"I want to underscore that Fannie Mae does not service loans. We rely on the loan servicing divisions of major banks and other financial institutions as the primary front-line operators and points of contact with the borrowers," said Terence Edwards, executive vice president for credit portfolio management at Fannie Mae. "We pay servicers significant fees during the life of a loan to work with borrowers. Servicers are required under our servicing contracts to help borrowers in trouble, not just collect payments."

Donald Bisenius, executive vice president of the single family credit guarantee business at Freddie Mac, made the same point. "Freddie Mac provides guidelines for the origination and servicing of our loans, and contracts with sellers and servicers to carry out these operations."

At the same time, a senior federal regulator, acting Comptroller of the Currency John Walsh, said Fannie and Freddie's policies have contributed to the foreclosure mess.

The companies "require servicers to use law firms approved for particular geographies when preparing foreclosure filings," he said. "For large mortgage servicers that operate nationwide, this often has resulted in use of a significant number of third parties - lawyers and other service providers - and a panoply of documents used in their mortgage foreclosure processes: one large mortgage servicer has indicated that they use over 250 different affidavit forms."

Walsh acknowledged that the six large national bank servicers - Bank of America, Citibank, J.P. Morgan Chase, HSBC, PNC, Wells Fargo and U.S. Bank - have deficiencies in their foreclosure processes. He said the OCC and other banking regulators are conducting in-depth exams of these processes.

Edwards of Fannie Mae defended the attorney network and said it was expanding to all 50 states. "Having the retained attorney network allows us to improve our oversight and management of both the servicers and the attorneys' actions during the default process," he said. "The network provides the framework to hold the attorneys accountable for their performance while giving us the authority to provide guidance to the firms, implement new policies and cost-saving structures, and audit actions by the firms."

Meanwhile, Bisenius defended the dual-track approach to mortgage modification and foreclosure embraced by many of its servicers: Attempt to modify a loan to make it more affordable, but also prepare to foreclose if that is not possible.

"While we believe that borrowers who already are under significant stress arising from their financial situations should not be subjected to needless confusion, we also believe that unnecessary delays in an already lengthy foreclosure process would be ounterproductive," Bisenius said.

He noted that foreclosures usually last well over a year, and sometimes close to two. "The dual-track process allows for a delicate balance between the need to minimize losses and protect communities while protecting borrower interests. Lengthy foreclosure delays impose substantial losses on Freddie Mac and taxpayers - by some estimates, $30 to 40 per day and $10,000 to $15,000 per year for every defaulted loan," Bisenius said. "These costs do not include additional losses resulting from depreciation in the value of the property."

Mortgage industry executives have argued for weeks that they are foreclosing only on borrowers who deserve it for missing their monthly payments.

But consumer groups and attorneys contend that many homeowners are being pushed into foreclosure because of errors or bad advice by the companies managing their loans - an issue that will be a core focus of the Senate banking committee hearing.

Many borrowers, foreseeing financial difficulty ahead, were told by their mortgage servicers to miss payments in order to get a loan modification. But after doing so, homeowners were served foreclosure papers instead of getting the modification, the advocates say.

In other cases, borrowers accrued late fees without their servicer telling them about the fines. The company would then consider the borrower in default of the loan.

The hearing follows a similar one last month by the committee during which Diane Thompson, an attorney with the Consumer Law Center, estimated that over half of the foreclosure cases she defends involve servicer problems.

Lawmakers plan to probe the cause of such "servicer-driven foreclosures" - and question regulators over whether they are adequately watching the activities of mortgage servicers. Scheduled to testify are senior officials from the Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

"The problems currently in the news may be just the tip of the iceberg," said Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.), the committee chairman. "The mortgage servicing industry may be plagued throughout with more systemic failures."

These "are problems that may result in homeowners being put at unnecessary risk of default and foreclosure," he added.

Several of the nation's largest mortgage companies have acknowledged problems with their servicing operations. The largest, Bank of America, has pledged to put an end to the "dual track" process of negotiating loan modifications with borrowers at the same time they are being foreclosed upon.

The hearing, the final one for Dodd before he retires from the Senate, will also feature testimony from senior Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac executives, who will be on the witness stand for the first time since the uproar over foreclosures began.

Fannie and Freddie are expected to defend their practices while laying the blame for any problems in foreclosures on the law firm and mortgage servicers who oversee the process on their behalf. The companies have threatened financial penalties against these firms if they do not take corrective actions quickly.

Another issue that is likely to be raised this week on Capitol Hill is whether banks in many cases are trying to foreclose on borrowers when they lack the legal standing to do so. Besides Dodd's committee hearing, a separate hearing on the foreclosure debacle is being held Thursday by the House Judiciary Committee.

Doubts about the legal standing of banks are being raised amid allegations that they did not properly transfer paperwork proving the ownership of mortgages as they repeatedly traded the loans to investors.

In a case in New Jersey, for instance, a Bank of America executive, Linda DeMartini, testified that it was customary for the big lender Countrywide to hold on to the ownership documents even after the loans were pooled together, turned into securities and traded around the world. Bank of America bought Countrywide in 2008.

In a Nov. 16 decision that alarmed the mortgage industry, Chief Judge Judith H. Wizmur of U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Camden, N.J., denied a foreclosure against a homeowner based on Countrywide's failure to pass the documents to the proper party.

Bank of America has said that the situation was an aberration and disputed DeMartini's sworn testimony, saying she was mistaken.

chaa@washpost.com goldfarbz@washpost.com

Here is the link to the article



Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 3.9.2011

Commentary: Different day - same story.

Mortgage interest rates are once again fluttering around in a relatively tight trading range - driven by the opposing forces of a safe haven bid from Middle East turmoil and improving domestic economic data.

Uncle Sam will be conducting a $21 billion 10-year note auction today. The auction will conclude at 1:00 p.m. ET. Most analysts expect domestic and foreign investors to show solid demand for this offering. If those expectations prove accurate, this event will likely be supportive of steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates. I'll post the auction results on my website as soon as possible once the final gavel falls.

As they do every Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers of America have released their Mortgage Applications Survey figures for the week ended March 4th. According to the MBA, overall loan demand was up 15.5% from the prior week with purchase loan requests climbing 12.5% and refinance applications improving by 17.2%. The average national contract rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages finished the week at 4.93%, down by 9 basis-points from the prior week, down by 20 basis-points for the month-ago mark, and down by 8 basis-points from the year-ago level. Refinance applications accounted for a little more than 60% of all applications taken during the week.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 3.8.2011

Commentary: Different day - same story.

Mortgage interest rates are once again fluttering around in a relatively tight trading range - driven by the opposing forces of a safe haven bid from Middle East turmoil and improving domestic economic data.

Against this backdrop Uncle Sam will be conducting a three-part, $66 billion dollar Treasury auction. The Treasury Department has plans to sell $32 billion of 3-year notes today, $21 billion of 10-year notes tomorrow and $13 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday. The auctions will conclude at 1:00 p.m. ET on each respective day - and I'll post results on my website as soon as possible once the final gavel falls.

Some analysts argue that the brewing unrest in Saudi Arabia will drive more foreign investors to this week's Treasury auction. If so, the increased demand for high-quality dollar denominated fixed-income assets will almost certainly prove supportive for the prospects for steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates. Others say that the threshold of safe-haven demand has already been reached. If this assessment proves accurate, mortgage interest rates will be vulnerable to a move to higher levels. The "tilt-point" here will almost certainly be determined by the trend trajectory of oil prices.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME

Monday, March 7, 2011

Weekly Update by Bill Fisher

Same as the Old Boss?

“If credit conditions don't continue to tighten and the economy continues on an upward path, we may just find a housing market which can contribute to the recovery before too long,” Keith Gumbinger of HSH Associates wrote a couple of days ago. Sounds like the old expression, “God willin’ and the creek don’t rise”—about the same level of certainty.

But last week’s employment report for February raised almost everyone’s expectations about this economic recovery, so I suppose we should read renewed confidence into statements like Keith’s. We’ll look at that report in a moment.

First, mucho good news: Spending for new residential construction climbed by a very meaningful 5.3% in January. This is the fourth increase in the past five months. New lighter withholding regulations meant more disposable income for most Americans, and personal consumption rose by 0.2%. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) measure of the health of the non-manufacturing sector rose to 59.7 in February, its highest level since August 2005. And the ISM measurement for manufacturing rose to 61.4 in February, the highest figure since 2004.

All of this is heartening and—though not quite reason to break out singing, “Alleluia, the great storm is over”—it gives us far more confidence in the economy’s current direction. Let’s look at how well the employment report reinforces this confidence.

The key number is the 192,000 new payrolls added in February—a figure that is actually and finally adequate to earn respect in the economic world. (We need 150,000 to 200,000 new job payrolls each month just to do a bit more than jog in place. At or below 150,000, we’re basically creating just enough jobs to give the immigrants and newly-job-ready youth of our nation income-producing work.

Now, we actually need a substantially higher number of new jobs each month to firm the recovery, given how many jobs have been lost during the recession. Note, though, that the December and January new-job figures were revised higher—up 49,000 and 27,000 respectively.

At the same time, the unemployment rate—computed from telephone surveys of American households—fell below 9% to 8.9%. Is that good news, though? The jury is out.

We have 14% more workers on Social Security Disability Rolls. Many of them will stay there, simply dropping out of the jobs market where they might possibly seek jobs if appropriate jobs were more available. Further, the percentage of Americans looking for a job has dropped by 1.8% since 2008. Thus, a lower unemployment rate is the result of fewer people seeking jobs perhaps more than it is of more job-seekers finding employment.

“We’re heading in the right direction but far too slowly to make a real dent in unemployment,” Robert Reich and others have warned. And there’s another problem with the employment numbers. “The big news isn’t jobs, it’s wages,” Reich asserts. In a study, the National Employment Law Project found that most of the new jobs created since February 2010 provide far lower wages than the jobs they’re replacing.

Needless to say, this does not help to build national prosperity and to increase the amount of personal spending by American workers. What’s missing in this picture and how do we fix it?

While you ponder that puzzle, I should say that mortgage rates are likely to remain in their slow-rise pattern, either staying close to where they now are or edging higher slowly. It’s still a very good time to lock in attractive rates.



by: Bill Fisher

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 3.7.2011

Commentary: Mortgage interest rates are fluttering around in a tight trading range - driven by the opposing forces of a safe haven bid from Middle East turmoil and improving domestic economic data. Against this backdrop Uncle Sam will be conducting a three-part, $66 billion dollar Treasury auction. The Treasury Department has plans to sell $32 billion of 3-year notes on Tuesday, $21 billion of 10-year notes on Wednesday and $13 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday.

Some analysts argue that the brewing unrest in Saudi Arabia will drive more foreign investors to this week's Treasury auction. If so, the increased demand for high-quality dollar denominated fixed-income assets will almost certainly prove supportive for the prospects for steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates. Others say that the threshold of safe-haven demand has already been reached. If this assessment proves accurate, mortgage interest rates will be vulnerable to a move to higher levels. The "tilt-point" here will almost certainly be determined by the trend trajectory of oil prices.

Friday, March 4, 2011

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 3.4.2011

Commentary: As you no doubt know by now the economy created 192,000 net new jobs in February. The national jobless rate dropped to 8.9% from January's mark of 9.0%. Hiring accelerated in almost every sector of the economy last month. Government employment fell by 30,000 -- contracting for a fourth straight month, pulled down by state and local governments enduring heavy budget pressures.

A separate report today showed that orders to U.S. factories climbed in January by the most in more than four years as demand for commercial aircraft rebounded after slumping the previous month. Bookings for manufacturer's good rose 3.1%, the biggest gain since September 2006. (Thanks to Timothy R. Homan of Bloomberg.com for the report detail here.)

Looking ahead to next week the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates will likely be most influenced by the results of the Treasury Department's three-part auction occurring from Tuesday to Thursday together with news headlines breaking daily from North Africa and the Middle East.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 3.3.2011

Commentary: New claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to their lowest level in 30 months. The Labor Department said this morning that the number of American workers standing in line to file first-time claims for government jobless benefits dropped by 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 368,000, the lowest since May 2008. Even though last week's jobless claims data falls outside the survey period for tomorrow's much more important February Nonfarm Payroll report mortgage investors were quick to take note of the fact that weekly jobless claims have reached a point where strong job growth will become increasingly evident in coming months. Against such a mindset it will likely be difficult, if not impossible for mortgage interest rates to sustain a move to notably lower levels.

In a separate report, the Institute of Supply Management said its Service Sector activity index (a measure that encompasses roughly 90% of all activity in our domestic economy) strengthened in February, touching the 59.7 mark, its highest level since August, 2005. With the employment component of the ISM's Service Sector Index firmly in the mid 50's (55.6 to be exact) there is good reason to believe that labor demand in this province of the general economy will soon begin to rise noticeably.

The big surge in job creation in the manufacturing sector last month (as reflected in Tuesday's ISM Manufacturing Index) -- together with today's solid job performance report contained in the ISM'S Service Sector Index -- has caused many traders to ramp-up their projections for tomorrow's nonfarm payroll figure. Analysts, economists and other market participants are currently calling for a net gain of roughly 200,000 new jobs in February - very noticeably eclipsing the 170,000 new job projections that existed as the week began.

In my judgment, mortgage investors have already priced in a headline nonfarm payroll number of 200,000 with a 9.0% unemployment rate. If my assessment proves accurate, it will likely take a February nonfarm payroll number greater than 210,000 and/or a national jobless rate less than 9.0% to put significant additional upward pressure on mortgage interest rates. While such an event is certainly possible - my personal opinion is that it is not very probable - at least not this time around.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Wednesday Market Update Video 3.2.2011

Mortgage interest rates continue to improve, however they seem to be flattening off.
Click here to view this week's Wednesday Market Update Video.

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 3.2.2011

Commentary: Geo-political risk remains a big market variable as mortgage investors put the finishing touches to their pipeline risk management positions in front of Friday's much anticipated February nonfarm payroll report.

The big surge in job creation in the manufacturing sector last month (as reflected in yesterday's ISM Manufacturing Index) month has caused many traders to ramp-up their projections for Friday's nonfarm payroll figure. Analysts, economists and other market participants are currently calling for a net gain of roughly 190,000 new jobs in February - noticeably above the 170,000 new job projections that existed as the week began.

As I write, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has completed his prepared text testimony regarding current economic conditions and is now fielding questions from the members of the House Financial Services Committee. Mr. Bernanke's comments have been largely interest rate neutral and he has once again reinforced his view that there is little likelihood that rising oil and other commodity prices will cause a permanent increase in broader measures of inflation pressure within the economy.

As they do every Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers of America have released their Mortgage Application Survey figures for the week ended February 25th. The MBA said overall demand for single-family mortgages dropped 6.5% -- with purchase requests 6.1% lower while refinance demand slumped 6.5%. The average national contract rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages finished the week at 4.84%, down by 16 basis-points from four-weeks ago, up by 3 basis-points from the month-ago mark, and down by 11 basis-points compared to this same time frame in 2010. Refinance applications represent a little more than six out of every ten loan applications taken during the week.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 3.1.2011

Commentary: Manufacturing accelerated in February to the fastest pace since May 2004 - a sign the manufacturing sector is red-hot right now.

The Institute of Supply Management's factory index increased to 61.4% in February from 60.8% in January. The ISM's measure of new orders rose to its highest level since January 2004 and the employment gauge jumped to its highest mark since January 1973. A measure of prices paid for raw materials edged fractionally higher as well.

Mortgage investors were fairly bored with the details of this report until they got to the employment component. The big reported surge in job creation in the manufacturing sector last month has caused many traders to ramp-up their projections for Friday's nonfarm payroll figure. Yesterday analysts, economists and other market participants were publicizing estimates calling for a net gain of roughly 170,000 new jobs in February - most of those estimates have now been modified to reflect the majority opinion calling for a headline nonfarm payroll number in the neighborhood of 190,000 or more. Sharply improving conditions in the labor sector will make it difficult, if not impossible, for mortgage interest rates to move notably lower from current levels.

Fed Chairman Bernanke's appearance before the Senate Banking Committee this morning to present his appraisal of current economic conditions had no discernable impact on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates. As expected, Mr. Bernanke comments were largely interest rate neutral. He went out of his way to suggest he sees little likelihood that rising oil and other commodity prices will cause a permanent increase in broader measures of inflation pressure within the economy. Bernanke will make an encore appearance on Capitol Hill tomorrow to repeat his prepared text testimony to the members of the House Financial Services Committee.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME