Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 5.23.2012


Daily Commentary by Larry Baer:    New home sales posted a stronger than expected month-over-month gain of 3.3% in April, offering further evidence the housing market has turned a corner. Compared to April of last year, new home sales were up 9.9%.  Signs of renewed life in the housing market were also bolstered by a 4.9% rise in the median price of a new home last month to $237,500.  While the inventory of new homes on the market rose 1.4%, it remains near record lows.  The upturn in job growth together with record-low mortgage interest rates is fueling the surge in housing demand.
Speaking of mortgages - the Mortgage Bankers of America have released their mortgage application survey data for the week ended May 18th.  The numbers show overall loan demand rose 3.8% during the week lead by a 5.6% week-over-week increase in refinance loan requests.  Purchase money loan requests slipped 3.0% lower from the prior week's level.  Refinance applications accounted for a little more than three of every four mortgage applications taken last week.  The contract rate for 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgages finished the survey period at 3.93%, down 3 basis-points from its week-ago level, down 11 basis-points from four weeks ago, and down 82 basis-points from the year ago mark.
Uncle Sam is back in the credit markets looking to sell $35 billion worth of 5-year notes today.  Demand for this offering may not be as robust as it has been at recent auctions simply because the price of this security has become so expensive as the yield drops into the neighborhood of 0.73%.  A softer-than-expected bid for a today's auction may cause a little ripple in the mortgage market - but not enough to notably influence the current level of mortgage interest rates.  Today's auction will conclude at 1:00 p.m. ET and I'll post the result on my website as soon as possible once the final gavel falls.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME