Commentary: As they do every Thursday morning, the Labor Department has released their weekly jobless claims figures. The data shows the number of Americans filing first-time claims for government unemployment benefits fell 6,000 to 388,000 during the week ended March 26th. The number of new jobless claims filed has now held beneath the 400,000 level that is generally associated with steady job growth for three consecutive weeks.
Today's weekly jobless claims numbers falls outside of the survey period for tomorrow's much more important March nonfarm payroll report. Even so, most economists are anticipating the number of net new jobs created in March rose to 190,000 while the national jobless rate held steady near a two-year low of 8.9%. These values are already well priced into the mortgage market and will likely have little influence on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates should the actual values closely match expectations. In my judgment it will take a headline nonfarm payroll number greater than 200,000 and/or a jobless rate of 8.8% or lower to put significant upward pressure on mortgage rates. By the same token, it will take an unlikely nonfarm payroll number of 175,000 or less and/or a national jobless rate of 9.0% or higher to drive mortgage interest rates notably lower from current levels.
THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME
