Daily Commentary by Larry Baer: More Americans than expected filed
first-time claims for government jobless benefits last week and consumer prices
were flat in January. Both conditions support the argument of those who expect
the Fed to maintain it's every accommodative monetary policy stance for the
foreseeable future. As long as this thinking is predominate among
mortgage investors -- look for mortgage interest rates to hold relatively
steady near current levels.
Initial weekly
jobless claims for unemployment benefits increased 20,000 to a seasonally
adjusted 362,000, according to data released by the Labor Department. It
was the first increase in this measure of activity in the labor sector in three
weeks. Mortgage investors gave the data nothing more than a disinterested
glance.
In a separate
report, the Labor Department said consumer prices were generally flat for a
second consecutive month in January. Consumer prices excluding food and
energy - the so called "core" rate of inflation at the consumer level
- posted a gain of 0.3% last month - the largest increase in this measure since
May 2011. Mortgage investors shrugged this essentially benign data
off too -- but the pace of consumer inflation will draw more attention over the
course of coming months as gasoline and food costs continue to rise at an
uncomfortable rate.
The National
Association of Realtors said the pace of sales of existing homes was stable in
January - posting a 0.4% gain from December's downwardly revised gain.
Today's report also included annual revisions - which indicate that the pace of
sales has been slightly slower during the past three years than originally
thought. Even so, the trend of improving sales remains intact. Existing
home sales, tabulated when a contract closes, have recovered since reaching a
13-year low of 4.11 million in 2008. The market peaked at a record 7.08
million units sold in 2005. Resales accounted for about 93% of the
residential market in 2012.
THE
MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME
