Daily Commentary by Larry Baer: A report earlier this morning from the
Labor Department showed the number of Americans standing in line to file
first-time claims for government jobless benefits fell 5,000 to 330,000 - its
lowest mark since late January 2008. Economists continue to caution about
reading too much into this month's figures on jobless claims because the data
tends to be volatile around this time of the year due to large swings in the
model the government uses to iron out seasonal fluctuations.
The warning from economists
regarding the validity of the initial claims data fell on deaf ears as far as
most mortgage investors were concerned.
The vast majority of
mortgage investors are now anticipating the more important January nonfarm
payroll report will show the economy created 165,000 jobs -- rather than the
150,000 previously anticipated. This modest projected gain in the January
headline nonfarm payroll figure was enough to cause many mortgage investors to
book marketing gains today and become more conservative with their forward
looking pricing strategies.
THE
MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME
