Daily Commentary by Larry Baer: The number of Americans standing in line to file
first-time claims for government jobless benefits fell sharply last week to a
new four-year low while retail sales rebounded in November.
New jobless claims
fell for a fourth straight week, dropping 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted
343,000 according to Labor Department figures. Seasonal hiring patterns
related to the holiday season and Hurricane Sandy employment issues will likely
continue to make it hard to truly determine the longer-term underlying trend in
the labor sector until at least mid-January.
Even so, the modest
improvement in the labor market has helped support Retail Sales -- which posted
a 0.3% month-over-month improvement in November. Excluding both auto and
gasoline sales - retailers saw a 0.8% improvement in traffic at their cash
registers last month.
Economic growth is
expected to slow as the fourth-quarter progresses, beset by slower inventory
building and job growth as worries among companies and consumers alike that the
government will adopt harsh austerity measures in January constrain activity.
In a separate report
the Labor Department said the November Producer Price Index dropped 0.8% as
gasoline prices plunged 10.1%, their sharpest single-month decline since March
2009. The so called core producer price index, a value which strips out
volatile food and energy costs, rose a very modest 0.1% last month. The
inflation story contained in this data set remains very muted - a condition
which gives the Federal Reserve plenty of room to continue with stimulus
programs aimed at bringing down the unemployment rate with out immediate
concerns of reawakening the inflation beast.
THE
MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME
