Daily Commentary by Larry Baer: The number of
Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits spiked last week,
reversing a sharp decline in the prior week.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 46,000 to a
seasonally adjusted 388,000 during the week ended October 13th.
As you may recall,
the government reported an unusually large 30,000 drop for initial claims for
the week ending October 6th - pushing the seasonally adjusted number
down to its lowest level in more than four years. Today a Labor Department official said it
appeared state-level "administrative issues" were distorting the
claims data at the start of October. The
official declined to name the state, although the Labor Department did say that
California
was the only state in the week October 6th to report a decrease in
claims of more than 1,000.
Sorting through all
the pluses and minuses and the "administrative issues" -- here is the
bottom line with respect to the labor sector - the average of claims in the
past two weeks is 365,000 -- the same as the Labor Department has been
reporting through the end of the third quarter.
Claims are going sideways. No
matter how you choose to slice and dice the numbers - the labor market is
getting better - but at a snail's pace.
Last week included the 12th of the month, which coincides
with the period the Labor Department uses in its survey of employers to
calculate monthly payroll growth. The
broad week-over-week swings in the claims data still leaves mortgage investors
expecting a modest 120,000 gain in the October nonfarm payroll figure which
will be released Friday, November 2nd . If this assessment proves accurate, the
October nonfarm payroll figures will remain well below the threshold that might
be expected to exert significant upward pressure on mortgage interest
rates.
THE
MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME
