Daily Commentary by Larry Baer: A
disappointing weekly U.S.
jobless claims report, together with dismal economic news from Asia and Europe,
has combined to reinforce the view of slowing global growth prospects. Against this backdrop stock prices will
likely struggle to generate any meaningful upward traction -- while the pace of
safe-haven buying of Treasury debt obligations and agency eligible
mortgage-backed securities will improve at a modest pace.
Until/unless the fixed-income investment
community begins to see signs interventions by central banks in the U.S.,
Europe, and China are actually bearing fruit in terms of measurable improvement
in the pace of economic growth here and aboard - the support mechanisms for
steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates on Main Street,
USA will remain firmly in place.
FYI -- The Labor Department released data
earlier this morning indicating the number of Americans standing in line to
file first-time claims for jobless benefits fell by a paltry 3,000 to 382,000
during the week ended September 15th. The weekly numbers are strongly hinting the
far more important September nonfarm data will be weak when it is officially
released on Friday, October 5th.
If so, look for mortgage interest rates to hover within shouting
distance of current levels.
THE
MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME
