Daily Commentary by Larry Baer: The
few mortgage investors still at their desks gave today's slightly stronger than
expected 0.7% improvement in the May Factory Orders number nothing more than a
passing glance.
Looking ahead to the balance of this holiday
shortened week - still to come are Thursday's weekly jobless claims number and
June ISM Service Sector Index. Both of
these reports will be sharply overshadowed by the release of the June Nonfarm
Payroll data on Friday morning. Your
current rate sheets almost fully reflect mortgage investors' expectation that
the headline June Nonfarm Payroll figure will show the economy created
something in the neighborhood of an anemic 90,000 new jobs last month. The national jobless rate is expected to
remain unchanged at 8.2%. Only in the
highly unlikely event June Nonfarm Payrolls were to exceed 125,000 and/or the
national jobless rate posts a reading of 8.0% or less will mortgage investor's
likely respond by pushing interest rates notably higher.
THE
MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME
