Daily Commentary by Larry Baer: The number of Americans standing in line to file first-time claims for government jobless benefits dropped to a nine-month low during the week ended December 3rd. The number of claims fell 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 381,000. As I mentioned in this week's edition of "ViewPoint" - the usefulness of the weekly jobless claims data in assessing labor market conditions is greatly diminished this time of year due to holiday related hiring volatility. Mortgage investors gave this report little more than a passing glance this morning.
Different day - same story. The European financial crisis is an "on/off" switch for the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates here at home. If the crisis ends with the dissolution of the euro as a common currency - global capital will likely remain firmly entrenched in the relative safe-haven of dollar denominated assets like Treasury debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities. Such an outcome will almost surely prove very supportive of the prospects for steady to perhaps fractionally lower domestic mortgage interest rates.
In the unlikely event the members of the European Union are successful in their efforts to cobble together a far-reaching financial reform package that is deemed by credit market participants the world over to be sufficient to return fiscal solvency to the region's governments -- capital will begin to flow away from the safety of dollar denominated assets in search of higher yielding assets elsewhere. Such an outcome, should it develop, is virtually sure to put increasing amounts of upward pressure on our domestic mortgage interest rates.
Some analysts are suggesting the upcoming summit will be a major defining moment for the European Union and by extension for global economic history. I don't know whether such a dramatic description will likely prove to be accurate or not -- but I do know tension in the global investor community is extremely high and liquidity in the mortgage marketplace is declining as year-end approaches - when combined these conditions ramp up the potential of a period of very "whippy" mortgage interest rate movement ahead. Heads up.
THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME
