Mon. May 30 Mortgage market closed for the Memorial Day Holiday
Tues. May 31, 10:00 a.m. ET May Consumer Confidence 66.5 vs. last 66.4
The expected fractional improvement in month-over-month
consumer confidence will likely draw nothing more than a
passing glance from mortgage investors.
Wed. June 1, 10:00 a.m. ET May Institute of Supply Mgmt. Manufacturing Index
58.0% vs. last 60.4%
This measure of activity in the manufacturing sector will likely
confirm the economy is off to a slow second-quarter start – a
projection that is already priced into the mortgage market. If
the consensus estimate proves accurate – at best this report
will be supportive of steady mortgage interest rates.
Thurs. June 2, 8:30 a.m. ET
Revised Q1 Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
1.7% vs. last +1.6% and +0.8% vs. last +1.0%
Investors will key on the unit labor cost component of this
report. If the consensus estimate proves accurate, the
absence of inflation pressure generated by unit labor cost will
confirm investors’ expectations. This data will likely exert little,
if any direct influence on the trend trajectory of mortgage rates
today.
Thurs. June 2, 8:30 a.m. ET Initial jobless claims for the week ended 5/28
Down 8,000 to 416,000
Until the total number of first-time claims for jobless benefits
once again falls below 400,000 on a week-over-week basis --
this data will tend to support steady mortgage interest rates.
Thurs. June 2, 10:00 a.m. ET April Factory Orders -1.0% vs. last +3.4%
From this point forward factory orders gains will be entirely
dependent on improving final demand. Mortgage investors will
give this data a quick glance – but will not likely base rate
sheet pricing decisions on anything they see here.
Fri. June 3, 8:30 a.m. ET May
Nonfarm Payrolls +185,000
Jobless Rate 9.0% vs. last 9.0%
Avg. Hourly Earnings +0.2% vs. last +0.1%
In the unlikely event headline nonfarm payroll gains are
stronger than projected and/or the national jobless rate drops
to 8.9% or less look for mortgage interest rates to edge higher
from current levels.
Fri. June 3, 10:00 a.m. ET May Institute of Supply Mgmt. Service Sector Index
54.0% vs. last 52.8%
Mortgage investors are anticipating the majority of the
projected improvement contained in this report will be the result
of a faulty seasonal adjustment last month. If the actual
number closely approximates the consensus estimate -- this
report will likely exert little if any noticeable influence on the
trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates today.
By Larry Baer
