Friday, June 24, 2011

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 6.24.2011

Commentary: Mortgage investors showed little response to this morning's news from the Commerce Department indicating orders for manufactured goods and business spending plans rose in May.

A separate government guesstimate indicating the economy grew a little more strongly in the first-quarter than initially reported brought nothing more than a disinterested yawn from investors as well.

Trading action in the stock markets will probably prove to be the primary driver behind changes in the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates for the balance of the day. Lower stock prices will likely prove supportive of steady to perhaps fractionally lower rates while higher stock prices will probably drag mortgage interest rates higher.

Looking ahead to next week Uncle Sam will be in the credit markets from Monday through Wednesday looking to borrow $99 billion in the form of $35 billion of 2-year notes, $35 billion of 5-year notes and $29 billion of 7-year notes. The relative short-term of these debt instruments combined with the uncertainty surrounding the Greek debt crisis will likely be enough to induce both domestic and foreign investors to bid aggressively. If so, look for little, if any noticeable influence on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates as a result of these events.

Next week's economic calendar will be bookended by Monday's Personal Income and Spending figures for May and Friday's Institute of Supply Management's Manufacturing Sector Index for June. Both sets of data are expected to be mortgage market neutral.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME