Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 6.21.2011

Commentary: Traders are simply marking time as they await this afternoon's (5:00 p.m. ET) vote by the Greek parliament to determine whether Prime Minister George Papandreou's socialist party remains in power.

As I write, it appears most market participants are confident that Papandreou will overcome the "no-confidence" vote and support for unpopular but necessary austerity measures will survive - a requisite condition that must be met before euro-zone countries will fund a "bail out" for the financially strapped Greeks.

Should the current Greek government fail after tonight's vote, the fear of a major meltdown in the world's banking system precipitated by an almost certain sovereign debt default by Greece will sweep the globe -- driving massive amounts of capital into the relative safe-haven of dollar-denominated assets like Treasury debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities. This is a scenario, if it comes to be, almost certain to prove supportive of steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates from your investors. I'll keep you posted as this story continues to unfold.

Here at home, this morning's news from the National Association of Realtors indicating May Existing Home Sales slipped 3.8% lower on a month-over-month basis drew nothing but a passing glance from mortgage investors. A soft Existing Home Sales number has been priced into the market for sometime. Most analysts believe last month's sales pace will prove to be the low point of the year. If job creation improves over the course of the next six months as expected -- the May sales pace bottom projection will likely wind-up "pin-point" accurate.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME