Commentary: Trading activity is light this morning in the mortgage market. Investors gave this morning's news that March Factory Orders posted a stronger-than-expected gain of 3.0% nothing more than a passing glance. Friday morning's 8:30 a.m. ET release of the April Nonfarm Payroll data together with preparations for next week's $77 billion Treasury debt auction has sent many mortgage investors temporarily to the sidelines. It will probably take a nonfarm payroll report showing less than 125,000 new jobs were created in April together with a national jobless rate of 8.9% or higher to induce investors to push mortgage interest rates to notably lower levels. While such an outcome is certainly possible - the probability of such an outcome remains relatively low.
Since Sunday evening - the primary news story in the global media has revolved around Osama bin Laden. While the elimination of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is considered by many to be a monumental military and psychological victory in the war on terrorism -- it has had little noticeable effect on the trend trajectory of global interest rates. Until the threat of terrorism is reduced to the point that massive military and governmental expenditures are deemed unnecessary - the battle against such extremist will continue to apply some degree of upward pressure on interest rates in general - and mortgage interest rates in particular.
THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME
