Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Daily Commentary by Larry Baer 1.17.2011

Commentary: Trading activity in the mortgage market is very light this morning.

The economic calendar offers nothing for investors to chew-on so the direction of mortgage interest rates is currently being dictated by trading action in the stock markets -- with this morning's higher stock prices dragging mortgage interest rates fractionally higher.

For what it is worth -- my price and time models are flashing an increasing number of signals suggesting the stock markets are fast approaching a significant multi-day as well as a multi-week high. If my assessment proves accurate, a hard break downward for stock prices will almost certainly create a solid round of "flight-to-quality" buying of Treasury debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities - a condition that will undoubtedly prove to be supportive of the prospects for steady to fractionally lower mortgage interest rates.

Be patient, be disciplined, and use the strategies outlined above as a guide as you layout your pipeline risk management regimen for the week.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! . YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME